Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Kuang Hong Arts Management Incorporation (6596.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: EntertainmentSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$128.10 - $182.54$154.86
Multi-Stage$201.86 - $221.41$211.45
Blended Fair Value$183.15
Current Price$150.50
Upside21.70%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS28.15%0.00%4.730.410.003.653.391.370.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--1,066.00%0.00%-100.00%7.80%147.50%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.98%0.56%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)701.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)266.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)435.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)140.3887.7452.64
Cash Retained (M)435.90435.90435.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-140.38-87.74-52.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)295.52348.16383.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)36.9536.9536.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share8.009.4210.37
LTM Dividend per Share7.207.207.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share8.009.4210.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend15.2016.6217.57
WACC / Discount Rate9.63%9.63%9.63%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$128.10$154.86$182.54
Upside / Downside-14.88%2.90%21.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)701.90694.88687.93681.05674.24667.50687.52
Payout Ratio37.90%48.32%58.74%69.16%79.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)266.00335.75404.08471.01536.56600.75635.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.63%9.63%9.63%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)303.17306.27309.36
Year 2 PV (M)329.47336.23343.06
Year 3 PV (M)346.78357.50368.45
Year 4 PV (M)356.71371.50386.74
Year 5 PV (M)360.64379.42398.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,761.486,061.506,373.88
Equity Value (M)7,458.267,812.418,180.45
Shares Outstanding (M)36.9536.9536.95
Fair Value$201.86$211.45$221.41
Upside / Downside34.13%40.50%47.11%

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