Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Saudi Electricity Company (5110.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$229.60 - $270.50$253.50
Multi-Stage$52.97 - $58.01$55.44
Blended Fair Value$154.47
Current Price$14.70
Upside950.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS31.71%18.60%0.700.690.700.700.170.180.130.130.130.13
YoY Growth--1.58%-0.92%-1.00%309.54%-2.87%36.67%0.10%0.48%0.84%0.25%
Dividend Yield--4.47%3.50%2.98%2.66%0.73%1.11%0.78%0.63%0.56%0.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,667.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,926.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,740.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,133.44708.40425.04
Cash Retained (M)2,740.402,740.402,740.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,133.44-708.40-425.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,606.962,032.002,315.36
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,166.564,166.564,166.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.390.490.56
LTM Dividend per Share0.700.700.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.390.490.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.091.191.26
WACC / Discount Rate5.68%5.68%5.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$229.60$253.50$270.50
Upside / Downside1,461.88%1,624.50%1,740.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,667.226,035.596,427.906,845.727,290.697,764.587,997.52
Payout Ratio51.64%59.32%66.99%74.66%82.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,926.823,580.054,305.845,110.866,002.346,988.127,397.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.68%5.68%5.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,355.793,387.603,419.41
Year 2 PV (M)3,783.293,855.353,928.09
Year 3 PV (M)4,209.324,330.154,453.27
Year 4 PV (M)4,633.874,812.074,995.37
Year 5 PV (M)5,056.955,301.215,554.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)199,673.11209,317.39219,330.79
Equity Value (M)220,712.33231,003.78241,681.74
Shares Outstanding (M)4,166.564,166.564,166.56
Fair Value$52.97$55.44$58.01
Upside / Downside260.36%277.16%294.59%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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