Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Tian An Medicare Limited (0383.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.88 - $1.81$1.23
Multi-Stage$0.91 - $1.00$0.95
Blended Fair Value$1.09
Current Price$0.81
Upside34.91%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192019201820172016
DPS0.00%-14.66%0.010.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--1.37%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)53.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)21.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.766.734.04
Cash Retained (M)21.2821.2821.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.76-6.73-4.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)10.5214.5517.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,085.491,085.491,085.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.040.040.05
WACC / Discount Rate8.09%8.09%8.09%
Growth Rate3.42%4.42%5.42%
Fair Value$0.88$1.23$1.81
Upside / Downside8.27%52.09%122.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)53.8056.1858.6661.2563.9666.7968.79
Payout Ratio60.45%66.36%72.27%78.18%84.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.5237.2842.3947.8953.7860.1163.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.09%8.09%8.09%
Growth Rate3.42%4.42%5.42%
Year 1 PV (M)34.1634.4934.82
Year 2 PV (M)35.5936.2836.98
Year 3 PV (M)36.8437.9239.02
Year 4 PV (M)37.9139.3940.93
Year 5 PV (M)38.8240.7342.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)806.56846.32887.63
Equity Value (M)989.871,035.131,082.09
Shares Outstanding (M)1,085.491,085.491,085.49
Fair Value$0.91$0.95$1.00
Upside / Downside12.58%17.73%23.07%

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