Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

The Cross-Harbour (Holdings) Limited (0032.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$475.97 - $560.78$525.53
Multi-Stage$186.91 - $205.00$195.79
Blended Fair Value$360.66
Current Price$8.10
Upside4,352.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.53%4.76%0.480.360.420.420.420.400.390.350.350.33
YoY Growth--32.78%-14.50%0.04%0.38%4.34%3.91%11.56%-0.14%4.12%11.04%
Dividend Yield--7.12%4.67%3.87%3.82%2.99%3.31%3.32%2.73%3.10%3.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,050.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)312.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)737.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)210.18131.3678.82
Cash Retained (M)737.93737.93737.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-210.18-131.36-78.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)527.76606.57659.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)372.69372.69372.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.421.631.77
LTM Dividend per Share0.840.840.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.421.631.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.262.472.61
WACC / Discount Rate4.58%4.58%4.58%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$475.97$525.53$560.78
Upside / Downside5,776.20%6,388.02%6,823.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,050.881,119.191,191.941,269.411,351.931,439.801,483.00
Payout Ratio29.78%41.82%53.87%65.91%77.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)312.95468.09642.07836.701,053.911,295.821,371.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.58%4.58%4.58%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)443.37447.58451.78
Year 2 PV (M)576.06587.04598.11
Year 3 PV (M)711.05731.46752.26
Year 4 PV (M)848.35880.98914.54
Year 5 PV (M)988.021,035.741,085.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)66,092.9069,285.2272,599.71
Equity Value (M)69,659.7672,968.0176,401.68
Shares Outstanding (M)372.69372.69372.69
Fair Value$186.91$195.79$205.00
Upside / Downside2,207.55%2,317.14%2,430.89%

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