Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Henderson Land Development Company Limited (0012.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.94 - $57.37$43.39
Multi-Stage$101.51 - $111.78$106.54
Blended Fair Value$74.97
Current Price$27.45
Upside173.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.37%18.83%1.801.801.801.801.801.681.471.251.050.66
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%7.02%14.34%18.09%19.05%58.26%106.12%
Dividend Yield--7.63%7.64%6.61%5.42%5.95%4.40%4.15%2.89%3.38%2.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,508.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11,136.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,372.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,501.601,563.50938.10
Cash Retained (M)1,372.001,372.001,372.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,501.60-1,563.50-938.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1,129.60-191.50433.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,841.004,841.004,841.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.23-0.040.09
LTM Dividend per Share2.302.302.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.23-0.040.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.072.262.39
WACC / Discount Rate4.98%4.98%4.98%
Growth Rate-1.22%-0.22%0.78%
Fair Value$32.94$43.39$57.37
Upside / Downside20.00%58.08%108.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,508.0012,480.3212,452.7012,425.1412,397.6412,370.2112,741.31
Payout Ratio89.03%89.22%89.42%89.61%89.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11,136.0011,135.5411,135.0311,134.4711,133.8511,133.1911,785.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.98%4.98%4.98%
Growth Rate-1.22%-0.22%0.78%
Year 1 PV (M)10,501.2710,607.5810,713.89
Year 2 PV (M)9,902.6710,104.1810,307.73
Year 3 PV (M)9,338.149,624.639,916.92
Year 4 PV (M)8,805.769,167.809,540.88
Year 5 PV (M)8,303.698,732.609,179.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)444,579.15467,543.22491,446.58
Equity Value (M)491,430.67515,780.01541,105.07
Shares Outstanding (M)4,841.004,841.004,841.00
Fair Value$101.51$106.54$111.78
Upside / Downside269.82%288.14%307.20%

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