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Henderson Land Development Company Limited (0012.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.04 - $43.38$34.43
Multi-Stage$60.47 - $66.41$63.38
Blended Fair Value$48.91
Current Price$27.45
Upside78.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.37%18.83%1.801.801.801.801.801.681.471.251.050.66
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%7.02%14.34%18.09%19.05%58.26%106.12%
Dividend Yield--7.63%7.64%6.61%5.42%5.95%4.40%4.15%2.89%3.38%2.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,508.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11,136.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,372.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,501.601,563.50938.10
Cash Retained (M)1,372.001,372.001,372.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,501.60-1,563.50-938.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1,129.60-191.50433.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,841.004,841.004,841.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.23-0.040.09
LTM Dividend per Share2.302.302.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.23-0.040.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.072.262.39
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-1.22%-0.22%0.78%
Fair Value$27.04$34.43$43.38
Upside / Downside-1.50%25.43%58.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,508.0012,480.3212,452.7012,425.1412,397.6412,370.2112,741.31
Payout Ratio89.03%89.22%89.42%89.61%89.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11,136.0011,135.5411,135.0311,134.4711,133.8511,133.1911,785.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-1.22%-0.22%0.78%
Year 1 PV (M)10,367.6210,472.5810,577.54
Year 2 PV (M)9,652.219,848.6310,047.03
Year 3 PV (M)8,986.139,261.829,543.09
Year 4 PV (M)8,365.978,709.939,064.38
Year 5 PV (M)7,788.588,190.898,609.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)247,565.19260,352.80273,663.45
Equity Value (M)292,725.70306,836.65321,505.15
Shares Outstanding (M)4,841.004,841.004,841.00
Fair Value$60.47$63.38$66.41
Upside / Downside120.28%130.90%141.94%

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