Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$98.15 - $217.66$141.54
Multi-Stage$101.29 - $110.82$105.97
Blended Fair Value$123.76
Current Price$152.00
Upside-18.58%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.03%1.18%2.662.402.302.092.001.811.631.472.632.58
YoY Growth--10.91%4.47%9.63%4.59%10.76%10.61%11.06%-44.09%1.92%9.12%
Dividend Yield--1.69%1.71%1.74%1.77%1.85%2.64%1.62%1.73%4.12%4.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,432.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)779.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)653.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)286.40179.00107.40
Cash Retained (M)653.00653.00653.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-286.40-179.00-107.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)366.60474.00545.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)282.75282.75282.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.301.681.93
LTM Dividend per Share2.762.762.76
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.301.681.93
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.054.434.68
WACC / Discount Rate7.67%7.67%7.67%
Growth Rate3.40%4.40%5.40%
Fair Value$98.15$141.54$217.66
Upside / Downside-35.43%-6.88%43.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,432.001,495.031,560.831,629.531,701.251,776.131,829.41
Payout Ratio54.40%61.52%68.64%75.76%82.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)779.00919.731,071.351,234.531,409.991,598.511,692.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.67%7.67%7.67%
Growth Rate3.40%4.40%5.40%
Year 1 PV (M)846.03854.22862.40
Year 2 PV (M)906.53924.15941.94
Year 3 PV (M)960.90989.051,017.74
Year 4 PV (M)1,009.531,049.151,089.93
Year 5 PV (M)1,052.801,104.701,158.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,865.3125,041.8626,264.37
Equity Value (M)28,641.1029,963.1331,335.00
Shares Outstanding (M)282.75282.75282.75
Fair Value$101.29$105.97$110.82
Upside / Downside-33.36%-30.28%-27.09%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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