DDM Analysis: XOM

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$93.11 - $165.28	$123.60
Multi-Stage	$125.94 - $137.93	$131.82
Blended Fair Value	$127.71
Current Price	$112.75
Upside	13.27%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	2.66%	3.74%	3.80	3.40	3.40	3.39	3.38	3.33	3.14	2.96	2.83	2.75
YoY Growth	-	-	11.80%	0.01%	0.10%	0.40%	1.45%	6.19%	6.13%	4.40%	3.00%	4.51%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.19%	2.90%	3.10%	4.11%	6.06%	8.78%	3.84%	3.96%	3.45%	3.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	29,953.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	17,236.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	12,717.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	5,990.60	3,744.13	2,246.48
Cash Retained (M)	12,717.00	12,717.00	12,717.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-5,990.60	-3,744.13	-2,246.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)	6,726.40	8,972.88	10,470.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	4,396.50	4,396.50	4,396.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.53	2.04	2.38
LTM Dividend per Share	3.92	3.92	3.92
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.53	2.04	2.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend	5.45	5.96	6.30
WACC / Discount Rate	7.70%	7.70%	7.70%
Growth Rate	1.74%	2.74%	3.74%
Fair Value	$93.11	$123.60	$165.28
Upside / Downside	-17.42%	9.62%	46.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	29,953.00	30,774.43	31,618.38	32,485.48	33,376.35	34,291.66	35,320.41
Payout Ratio	57.54%	64.03%	70.53%	77.02%	83.51%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	17,236.00	19,706.34	22,299.21	25,019.47	27,872.16	30,862.49	32,671.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.70%	7.70%	7.70%
Growth Rate	1.74%	2.74%	3.74%
Year 1 PV (M)	18,119.70	18,297.80	18,475.89
Year 2 PV (M)	18,852.97	19,225.39	19,601.46
Year 3 PV (M)	19,449.73	20,028.89	20,619.42
Year 4 PV (M)	19,922.84	20,717.73	21,536.17
Year 5 PV (M)	20,284.16	21,300.78	22,357.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)	457,080.78	479,989.35	503,807.38
Equity Value (M)	553,710.18	579,559.94	606,398.10
Shares Outstanding (M)	4,396.50	4,396.50	4,396.50
Fair Value	$125.94	$131.82	$137.93
Upside / Downside	11.70%	16.92%	22.33%

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Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener