Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Wal-Mart de México, S.A.B. de C.V. (WALMEX.MX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Discount StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.55 - $64.32$49.13
Multi-Stage$39.27 - $42.79$41.00
Blended Fair Value$45.07
Current Price$56.57
Upside-20.33%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.79%5.62%2.152.671.701.621.782.071.472.461.671.82
YoY Growth---19.31%56.81%4.86%-8.87%-13.97%40.56%-40.17%47.57%-8.21%45.83%
Dividend Yield--3.82%4.04%2.36%1.98%2.76%3.71%2.81%5.30%3.86%4.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)50,490.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37,399.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)13,091.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10,098.106,311.313,786.79
Cash Retained (M)13,091.0513,091.0513,091.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-10,098.10-6,311.31-3,786.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,992.956,779.749,304.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)17,381.4917,381.4917,381.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.390.54
LTM Dividend per Share2.152.152.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.390.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.322.542.69
WACC / Discount Rate10.03%10.03%10.03%
Growth Rate3.62%4.62%5.62%
Fair Value$37.55$49.13$64.32
Upside / Downside-33.62%-13.15%13.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)50,490.5052,824.2955,265.9557,820.4760,493.0763,289.2065,187.87
Payout Ratio74.07%77.26%80.44%83.63%86.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37,399.4540,810.8944,457.7848,354.6252,516.7256,960.2860,298.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.03%10.03%10.03%
Growth Rate3.62%4.62%5.62%
Year 1 PV (M)36,734.6637,089.1637,443.67
Year 2 PV (M)36,020.3436,718.9237,424.20
Year 3 PV (M)35,264.5236,295.3637,346.09
Year 4 PV (M)34,474.4735,824.6337,214.07
Year 5 PV (M)33,656.7435,312.4037,032.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)506,493.39531,409.09557,295.81
Equity Value (M)682,644.12712,649.56743,756.43
Shares Outstanding (M)17,381.4917,381.4917,381.49
Fair Value$39.27$41.00$42.79
Upside / Downside-30.57%-27.52%-24.36%

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