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Definitive Analysis

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Verizon Communications, 5.9% 15 Feb 2054 (VZA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$49.48 - $92.36$67.00
Multi-Stage$98.60 - $108.41$103.41
Blended Fair Value$85.20
Current Price$25.55
Upside233.47%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.35%3.73%1.651.611.581.531.501.471.431.391.361.25
YoY Growth--2.03%2.04%3.45%2.08%2.16%2.50%3.17%2.27%8.48%9.42%
Dividend Yield--6.44%6.31%6.19%5.98%5.86%5.74%5.60%5.24%5.13%4.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)22,885.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11,419.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)11,466.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,577.002,860.631,716.38
Cash Retained (M)11,466.0011,466.0011,466.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,577.00-2,860.63-1,716.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,889.008,605.389,749.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,834.246,834.246,834.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.011.261.43
LTM Dividend per Share1.671.671.67
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.011.261.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.682.933.10
WACC / Discount Rate5.78%5.78%5.78%
Growth Rate0.35%1.35%2.35%
Fair Value$49.48$67.00$92.36
Upside / Downside93.68%162.21%261.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)22,885.0023,193.7423,506.6423,823.7624,145.1624,470.9025,205.02
Payout Ratio49.90%57.92%65.94%73.96%81.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11,419.0013,433.3115,499.9017,619.8019,794.0722,023.8123,314.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.78%5.78%5.78%
Growth Rate0.35%1.35%2.35%
Year 1 PV (M)12,573.8112,699.1112,824.41
Year 2 PV (M)13,579.9013,851.9014,126.60
Year 3 PV (M)14,449.4914,885.7815,330.77
Year 4 PV (M)15,193.9515,808.7016,441.93
Year 5 PV (M)15,823.8316,628.1417,464.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)602,239.26632,850.52664,694.07
Equity Value (M)673,860.24706,724.17740,882.62
Shares Outstanding (M)6,834.246,834.246,834.24
Fair Value$98.60$103.41$108.41
Upside / Downside285.91%304.73%324.30%

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