DDM Analysis: UBCP

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$111.57 - $202.43	$189.71
Multi-Stage	$33.21 - $36.29	$34.72
Blended Fair Value	$112.21
Current Price	$13.98
Upside	702.68%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	9.65%	11.17%	0.92	0.86	0.82	0.74	0.61	0.58	0.58	0.50	0.46	0.41
YoY Growth	-	-	6.77%	5.04%	11.17%	22.02%	4.18%	0.16%	16.32%	9.02%	12.44%	27.41%
Dividend Yield	-	-	6.88%	5.79%	5.68%	4.07%	4.24%	5.29%	5.38%	3.86%	3.73%	4.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	5.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	5.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)	0.21

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1.13	0.70	0.42
Cash Retained (M)	0.21	0.21	0.21
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1.13	-0.70	-0.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-0.92	-0.50	-0.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	5.54	5.54	5.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.17	-0.09	-0.04
LTM Dividend per Share	0.98	0.98	0.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.17	-0.09	-0.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.81	0.89	0.94
WACC / Discount Rate	6.27%	6.27%	6.27%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$111.57	$189.71	$202.43
Upside / Downside	698.07%	1,257.01%	1,348.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	5.64	6.00	6.39	6.81	7.25	7.72	7.95
Payout Ratio	96.30%	95.04%	93.78%	92.52%	91.26%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	5.43	5.70	5.99	6.30	6.62	6.95	7.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.27%	6.27%	6.27%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	5.32	5.37	5.42
Year 2 PV (M)	5.21	5.31	5.41
Year 3 PV (M)	5.10	5.25	5.40
Year 4 PV (M)	5.00	5.19	5.39
Year 5 PV (M)	4.89	5.13	5.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)	158.33	165.98	173.92
Equity Value (M)	183.85	192.22	200.90
Shares Outstanding (M)	5.54	5.54	5.54
Fair Value	$33.21	$34.72	$36.29
Upside / Downside	137.53%	148.35%	159.56%

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Financial Statements

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United Bancorp, Inc. (UBCP)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener