Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Dhipaya Group Holdings Public Company Limited (TIPH.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.36 - $38.37$30.04
Multi-Stage$26.58 - $28.96$27.75
Blended Fair Value$28.89
Current Price$21.70
Upside33.14%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.19%4.91%1.631.281.821.821.671.461.411.391.391.14
YoY Growth--27.84%-29.85%0.10%9.09%13.79%3.57%1.82%-0.01%22.22%12.50%
Dividend Yield--8.96%4.05%4.31%3.17%6.00%7.75%6.31%5.55%5.91%6.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,193.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)913.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)280.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)238.71149.2089.52
Cash Retained (M)280.47280.47280.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-238.71-149.20-89.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)41.76131.28190.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)594.29594.29594.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.220.32
LTM Dividend per Share1.541.541.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.220.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.611.761.86
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate2.91%3.91%4.91%
Fair Value$23.36$30.04$38.37
Upside / Downside7.63%38.41%76.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,193.561,240.281,288.831,339.281,391.711,446.181,489.57
Payout Ratio76.50%79.20%81.90%84.60%87.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)913.09982.321,055.561,133.041,214.961,301.561,377.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate2.91%3.91%4.91%
Year 1 PV (M)884.47893.06901.66
Year 2 PV (M)855.75872.46889.33
Year 3 PV (M)827.06851.40876.22
Year 4 PV (M)798.52830.01862.42
Year 5 PV (M)770.22808.38848.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,657.5712,235.0612,835.21
Equity Value (M)15,793.5816,490.3617,212.86
Shares Outstanding (M)594.29594.29594.29
Fair Value$26.58$27.75$28.96
Upside / Downside22.47%27.87%33.47%

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