Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Thaifoods Group Public Company Limited (TFG-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$165.59 - $315.69$295.85
Multi-Stage$49.49 - $54.17$51.79
Blended Fair Value$173.82
Current Price$5.05
Upside3,341.90%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.44%-7.53%0.110.400.180.130.290.100.140.060.000.00
YoY Growth---72.75%129.10%34.36%-54.35%180.48%-25.06%140.18%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--2.43%11.94%3.34%3.15%5.29%3.26%4.53%1.20%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,170.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,053.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,117.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,434.11896.32537.79
Cash Retained (M)4,117.194,117.194,117.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,434.11-896.32-537.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,683.083,220.873,579.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,517.244,517.244,517.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.590.710.79
LTM Dividend per Share0.680.680.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.590.710.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.271.391.47
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$165.59$295.85$315.69
Upside / Downside3,179.06%5,758.33%6,151.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,170.537,636.618,132.998,661.639,224.649,824.2410,118.97
Payout Ratio42.58%52.07%61.55%71.03%80.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,053.343,976.035,005.786,152.597,427.348,841.829,360.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,704.953,740.073,775.19
Year 2 PV (M)4,346.474,429.264,512.83
Year 3 PV (M)4,978.015,120.915,266.52
Year 4 PV (M)5,599.695,815.046,036.54
Year 5 PV (M)6,211.616,511.646,823.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)198,717.72208,315.86218,281.34
Equity Value (M)223,558.45233,932.77244,695.56
Shares Outstanding (M)4,517.244,517.244,517.24
Fair Value$49.49$51.79$54.17
Upside / Downside880.00%925.48%972.66%

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