Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT Surya Biru Murni Acetylene Tbk (SBMA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$100.06 - $142.50$120.93
Multi-Stage$154.64 - $169.76$162.05
Blended Fair Value$141.49
Current Price$140.00
Upside1.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%1.101.500.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---26.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.93%1.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13,836.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,719.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)10,116.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,767.201,729.501,037.70
Cash Retained (M)10,116.3010,116.3010,116.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,767.20-1,729.50-1,037.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,349.108,386.809,078.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)929.59929.59929.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share7.919.029.77
LTM Dividend per Share4.004.004.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share7.919.029.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend11.9113.0213.77
WACC / Discount Rate9.66%9.66%9.66%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$100.06$120.93$142.50
Upside / Downside-28.53%-13.62%1.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13,836.0113,697.6513,560.6713,425.0613,290.8113,157.9013,552.64
Payout Ratio26.88%39.51%52.13%64.75%77.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,719.715,411.587,069.258,693.2210,284.0111,842.1112,536.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.66%9.66%9.66%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)4,884.954,934.804,984.65
Year 2 PV (M)5,760.315,878.465,997.82
Year 3 PV (M)6,394.246,591.996,793.77
Year 4 PV (M)6,828.217,111.217,402.91
Year 5 PV (M)7,097.577,467.167,851.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)112,788.43118,661.59124,776.90
Equity Value (M)143,753.72150,645.21157,808.03
Shares Outstanding (M)929.59929.59929.59
Fair Value$154.64$162.05$169.76
Upside / Downside10.46%15.75%21.26%

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