Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT Pulau Subur Tbk (PTPS.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$102.87 - $145.72$124.03
Multi-Stage$158.36 - $173.61$165.84
Blended Fair Value$144.93
Current Price$85.00
Upside70.51%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%2.203.9722.150.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---44.56%-82.08%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.10%3.20%17.17%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)34,041.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13,005.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)21,036.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,808.304,255.192,553.11
Cash Retained (M)21,036.4221,036.4221,036.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,808.30-4,255.19-2,553.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)14,228.1216,781.2318,483.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,167.522,167.522,167.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.567.748.53
LTM Dividend per Share6.006.006.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.567.748.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend12.5613.7414.53
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$102.87$124.03$145.72
Upside / Downside21.03%45.91%71.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)34,041.5033,701.0833,364.0733,030.4332,700.1332,373.1233,344.32
Payout Ratio38.20%48.56%58.92%69.28%79.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13,005.0816,366.2219,658.8322,883.9626,042.6229,135.8130,843.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)14,732.2314,882.5515,032.88
Year 2 PV (M)15,929.3416,256.0916,586.15
Year 3 PV (M)16,691.3417,207.5317,734.26
Year 4 PV (M)17,098.7717,807.4318,537.90
Year 5 PV (M)17,219.7718,116.4519,050.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)261,568.06275,188.51289,370.55
Equity Value (M)343,239.51359,458.57376,311.84
Shares Outstanding (M)2,167.522,167.522,167.52
Fair Value$158.36$165.84$173.61
Upside / Downside86.30%95.10%104.25%

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