DDM Analysis: PAA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$11.78 - $17.12	$14.37
Multi-Stage	$23.03 - $25.23	$24.11
Blended Fair Value	$19.24
Current Price	$17.06
Upside	12.77%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-2.36%	-0.47%	1.27	1.06	0.83	0.73	0.93	1.43	1.24	1.97	1.51	1.54
YoY Growth	-	-	19.12%	28.08%	12.96%	-21.07%	-34.76%	15.27%	-37.16%	30.51%	-1.76%	15.74%
Dividend Yield	-	-	6.33%	6.00%	6.65%	6.83%	10.23%	27.02%	5.01%	8.94%	4.77%	7.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,130.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,025.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	105.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	226.00	141.25	84.75
Cash Retained (M)	105.00	105.00	105.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-226.00	-141.25	-84.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-121.00	-36.25	20.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	703.75	703.75	703.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.17	-0.05	0.03
LTM Dividend per Share	1.46	1.46	1.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.17	-0.05	0.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.28	1.40	1.49
WACC / Discount Rate	8.16%	8.16%	8.16%
Growth Rate	-2.47%	-1.47%	-0.47%
Fair Value	$11.78	$14.37	$17.12
Upside / Downside	-30.94%	-15.78%	0.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,130.00	1,113.39	1,097.02	1,080.89	1,065.00	1,049.34	1,080.82
Payout Ratio	90.71%	90.57%	90.42%	90.28%	90.14%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,025.00	1,008.35	991.98	975.86	960.01	944.41	999.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.16%	8.16%	8.16%
Growth Rate	-2.47%	-1.47%	-0.47%
Year 1 PV (M)	922.78	932.24	941.71
Year 2 PV (M)	830.76	847.88	865.18
Year 3 PV (M)	747.91	771.15	794.87
Year 4 PV (M)	673.32	701.36	730.27
Year 5 PV (M)	606.16	637.88	670.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)	12,425.90	13,076.13	13,753.30
Equity Value (M)	16,206.83	16,966.64	17,756.23
Shares Outstanding (M)	703.75	703.75	703.75
Fair Value	$23.03	$24.11	$25.23
Upside / Downside	34.99%	41.32%	47.89%

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Financial Statements

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Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener