DDM Analysis: OBK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$54.81 - $201.37	$91.65
Multi-Stage	$34.97 - $38.21	$36.56
Blended Fair Value	$64.11
Current Price	$34.52
Upside	85.71%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	26.17%	0.00%	0.60	0.59	0.51	0.37	0.28	0.19	0.19	0.22	0.18	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	0.96%	16.87%	37.85%	30.17%	51.01%	-1.31%	-15.08%	21.37%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.72%	1.96%	1.58%	0.87%	0.67%	0.92%	0.55%	0.66%	0.54%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	59.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	18.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)	41.10

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	11.99	7.49	4.50
Cash Retained (M)	41.10	41.10	41.10
(-) Cash Required (M)	-11.99	-7.49	-4.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)	29.11	33.60	36.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	31.35	31.35	31.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.93	1.07	1.17
LTM Dividend per Share	0.60	0.60	0.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.93	1.07	1.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.53	1.67	1.77
WACC / Discount Rate	8.44%	8.44%	8.44%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$54.81	$91.65	$201.37
Upside / Downside	58.79%	165.50%	483.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	59.95	63.85	68.00	72.42	77.12	82.14	84.60
Payout Ratio	31.45%	43.16%	54.87%	66.58%	78.29%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	18.85	27.56	37.31	48.21	60.38	73.92	78.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.44%	8.44%	8.44%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	25.17	25.41	25.65
Year 2 PV (M)	31.13	31.73	32.32
Year 3 PV (M)	36.75	37.81	38.88
Year 4 PV (M)	42.04	43.66	45.32
Year 5 PV (M)	47.02	49.29	51.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)	914.27	958.42	1,004.27
Equity Value (M)	1,096.38	1,146.31	1,198.10
Shares Outstanding (M)	31.35	31.35	31.35
Fair Value	$34.97	$36.56	$38.21
Upside / Downside	1.30%	5.91%	10.70%

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Financial Statements

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Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener