DDM Analysis: MTS.AX

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$35.43 - $99.01	$92.79
Multi-Stage	$15.38 - $16.82	$16.09
Blended Fair Value	$54.44
Current Price	$3.81
Upside	1,328.83%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	7.16%	11.51%	0.15	0.14	0.20	0.18	0.14	0.11	0.12	0.10	0.00	0.01
YoY Growth	-	-	13.37%	-32.18%	9.42%	33.85%	25.47%	-8.23%	22.32%	7,421.43%	-75.86%	-89.68%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.78%	3.45%	5.14%	3.82%	3.85%	4.38%	4.14%	2.70%	0.06%	0.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	541.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	346.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)	194.90

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	108.34	67.71	40.63
Cash Retained (M)	194.90	194.90	194.90
(-) Cash Required (M)	-108.34	-67.71	-40.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)	86.56	127.19	154.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,084.56	1,084.56	1,084.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.12	0.14
LTM Dividend per Share	0.32	0.32	0.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.12	0.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.40	0.44	0.46
WACC / Discount Rate	6.34%	6.34%	6.34%
Growth Rate	5.16%	6.16%	7.16%
Fair Value	$35.43	$92.79	$99.01
Upside / Downside	829.82%	2,335.38%	2,498.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	541.70	575.05	610.46	648.04	687.94	730.29	752.20
Payout Ratio	64.02%	69.22%	74.41%	79.61%	84.80%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	346.80	398.03	454.26	515.89	583.40	657.27	695.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.34%	6.34%	6.34%
Growth Rate	5.16%	6.16%	7.16%
Year 1 PV (M)	370.76	374.29	377.82
Year 2 PV (M)	394.15	401.68	409.29
Year 3 PV (M)	416.97	428.98	441.22
Year 4 PV (M)	439.23	456.18	473.61
Year 5 PV (M)	460.94	483.28	506.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)	14,596.94	15,304.33	16,038.87
Equity Value (M)	16,679.00	17,448.74	18,247.28
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,084.56	1,084.56	1,084.56
Fair Value	$15.38	$16.09	$16.82
Upside / Downside	303.64%	322.27%	341.59%

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300409.SZ	Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co., Ltd.	1.43%	$0.32	58.17%
600362.SS	Jiangxi Copper Company Limited	1.43%	$0.79	33.95%
600409.SS	Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.,Ltd	1.43%	$0.09	81.03%
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7012.T	Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ltd.	1.43%	$148.51	32.29%
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Metcash Limited (MTS.AX)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener