Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

MOL Magyar Olaj- és Gázipari Nyilvánosan Muködo Részvénytársaság (MOL.BD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas IntegratedSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6,401.35 - $12,874.25$8,913.85
Multi-Stage$5,168.07 - $5,621.38$5,390.72
Blended Fair Value$7,152.28
Current Price$2,698.00
Upside165.10%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.86%14.65%258.04303.71253.0978.620.00129.10114.1269.7063.2655.80
YoY Growth---15.03%20.00%221.92%5,940,300.00%-100.00%13.13%63.74%10.18%13.37%-15.13%
Dividend Yield--8.81%10.25%9.87%2.68%0.00%6.69%3.44%2.51%2.56%2.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)276,734.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)215,061.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)61,673.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)55,346.8034,591.7520,755.05
Cash Retained (M)61,673.0061,673.0061,673.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-55,346.80-34,591.75-20,755.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,326.2027,081.2540,917.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)755.62755.62755.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share8.3735.8454.15
LTM Dividend per Share284.62284.62284.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share8.3735.8454.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend292.99320.46338.77
WACC / Discount Rate10.33%10.33%10.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6,401.35$8,913.85$12,874.25
Upside / Downside137.26%230.39%377.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)276,734.00294,721.71313,878.62334,280.73356,008.98379,149.56390,524.05
Payout Ratio77.71%80.17%82.63%85.09%87.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)215,061.00236,281.88259,352.84284,424.74311,660.21341,234.61361,234.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.33%10.33%10.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)212,150.82214,161.73216,172.64
Year 2 PV (M)209,083.43213,065.88217,085.90
Year 3 PV (M)205,878.16211,788.18217,810.23
Year 4 PV (M)202,552.95210,342.56218,354.72
Year 5 PV (M)199,124.44208,742.23218,728.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,876,294.363,015,220.453,159,463.57
Equity Value (M)3,905,084.164,073,321.034,247,615.18
Shares Outstanding (M)755.62755.62755.62
Fair Value$5,168.07$5,390.72$5,621.38
Upside / Downside91.55%99.80%108.35%

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