Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

The Liberty SiriusXM Group (LSXMA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BroadcastingSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$59.23 - $86.45$72.38
Multi-Stage$98.32 - $108.27$103.19
Blended Fair Value$87.79
Current Price$22.29
Upside293.85%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.170.670.160.170.180.160.160.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%-73.90%329.31%-9.38%-5.88%15.25%-1.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.59%2.38%0.34%0.39%0.58%0.40%0.39%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,950.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)51.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,899.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)590.00368.75221.25
Cash Retained (M)2,899.002,899.002,899.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-590.00-368.75-221.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,309.002,530.252,677.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)374.00374.00374.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.176.777.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.176.777.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.316.907.30
WACC / Discount Rate8.44%8.44%8.44%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$59.23$72.38$86.45
Upside / Downside165.74%224.73%287.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,950.002,920.502,891.302,862.382,833.762,805.422,889.58
Payout Ratio1.73%19.38%37.04%54.69%72.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)51.00566.081,070.861,565.482,050.102,524.882,672.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.44%8.44%8.44%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)516.75522.02527.30
Year 2 PV (M)892.35910.66929.15
Year 3 PV (M)1,190.841,227.671,265.25
Year 4 PV (M)1,423.591,482.591,543.41
Year 5 PV (M)1,600.481,683.821,770.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)31,146.0732,767.9234,456.64
Equity Value (M)36,770.0938,594.6840,492.33
Shares Outstanding (M)374.00374.00374.00
Fair Value$98.32$103.19$108.27
Upside / Downside341.08%362.96%385.73%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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