Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Lennox International Inc. (LII)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$518.57 - $1,273.64$773.89
Multi-Stage$362.94 - $396.48$379.41
Blended Fair Value$576.65
Current Price$529.36
Upside8.93%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.72%11.79%4.504.313.993.553.323.102.642.241.941.66
YoY Growth--4.50%8.03%12.25%7.11%6.88%17.68%17.82%15.51%16.36%12.74%
Dividend Yield--0.80%0.89%1.59%1.38%1.06%1.71%0.98%1.09%1.16%1.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)841.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)198.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)643.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)168.28105.1863.11
Cash Retained (M)643.10643.10643.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-168.28-105.18-63.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)474.82537.93580.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)35.6335.6335.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share13.3315.1016.28
LTM Dividend per Share5.575.575.57
(+) Excess Retained per Share13.3315.1016.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend18.8920.6721.85
WACC / Discount Rate9.34%9.34%9.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$518.57$773.89$1,273.64
Upside / Downside-2.04%46.19%140.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)841.40896.09954.341,016.371,082.431,152.791,187.37
Payout Ratio23.57%36.85%50.14%63.43%76.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)198.30330.25478.51644.65830.371,037.511,098.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.34%9.34%9.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)299.19302.03304.86
Year 2 PV (M)392.74400.22407.77
Year 3 PV (M)479.35493.11507.13
Year 4 PV (M)559.38580.89603.02
Year 5 PV (M)633.19663.77695.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,565.9711,076.3111,606.18
Equity Value (M)12,929.8213,516.3314,124.49
Shares Outstanding (M)35.6335.6335.63
Fair Value$362.94$379.41$396.48
Upside / Downside-31.44%-28.33%-25.10%

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