Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kerry Group plc (KRZ.IR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$83.75 - $138.98$108.16
Multi-Stage$104.87 - $114.91$109.80
Blended Fair Value$108.98
Current Price$93.75
Upside16.25%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.85%10.89%1.191.111.000.910.830.740.660.590.530.47
YoY Growth--7.27%10.20%10.22%10.06%11.54%12.15%11.94%12.06%11.49%12.05%
Dividend Yield--1.27%1.41%1.19%0.80%0.70%0.67%0.77%0.63%0.78%0.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,228.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)340.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)888.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)245.65153.5392.12
Cash Retained (M)888.25888.25888.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-245.65-153.53-92.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)642.60734.72796.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)172.79172.79172.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.724.254.61
LTM Dividend per Share1.971.971.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.724.254.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.696.226.58
WACC / Discount Rate8.65%8.65%8.65%
Growth Rate1.74%2.74%3.74%
Fair Value$83.75$108.16$138.98
Upside / Downside-10.66%15.38%48.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,228.251,261.951,296.581,332.161,368.721,406.281,448.46
Payout Ratio27.68%40.15%52.61%65.07%77.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)340.00506.62682.12866.871,061.251,265.651,339.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.65%8.65%8.65%
Growth Rate1.74%2.74%3.74%
Year 1 PV (M)461.73466.27470.81
Year 2 PV (M)566.62577.81589.11
Year 3 PV (M)656.29675.84695.76
Year 4 PV (M)732.28761.49791.57
Year 5 PV (M)795.95835.84877.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,907.5615,654.7016,431.51
Equity Value (M)18,120.4218,971.9519,856.08
Shares Outstanding (M)172.79172.79172.79
Fair Value$104.87$109.80$114.91
Upside / Downside11.86%17.12%22.58%

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