Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT Kurniamitra Duta Sentosa, Tbk (KMDS.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food DistributionSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,261.68 - $2,534.91$1,756.23
Multi-Stage$985.80 - $1,073.93$1,029.08
Blended Fair Value$1,392.66
Current Price$590.00
Upside136.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS52.97%0.00%37.0036.0035.0021.255.254.420.5310.000.000.00
YoY Growth--2.78%2.86%64.71%304.76%18.85%732.62%-94.69%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.97%7.53%5.19%4.96%1.04%1.18%0.14%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)57,829.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30,400.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)27,429.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11,565.917,228.704,337.22
Cash Retained (M)27,429.5627,429.5627,429.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-11,565.91-7,228.70-4,337.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)15,863.6520,200.8723,092.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)800.00800.00800.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share19.8325.2528.87
LTM Dividend per Share38.0038.0038.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share19.8325.2528.87
(=) Adjusted Dividend57.8363.2566.87
WACC / Discount Rate10.34%10.34%10.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,261.68$1,756.23$2,534.91
Upside / Downside113.84%197.67%329.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)57,829.5661,588.4965,591.7469,855.2074,395.7979,231.5181,608.46
Payout Ratio52.57%60.05%67.54%75.03%82.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30,400.0036,986.7344,301.2952,410.4861,386.6871,308.3675,487.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.34%10.34%10.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)33,207.2633,522.0233,836.78
Year 2 PV (M)35,710.0636,390.2437,076.83
Year 3 PV (M)37,929.7039,018.5340,127.99
Year 4 PV (M)39,886.1941,420.1042,997.84
Year 5 PV (M)41,598.3443,607.5545,693.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)600,309.86629,305.05659,409.95
Equity Value (M)788,641.40823,263.48859,143.05
Shares Outstanding (M)800.00800.00800.00
Fair Value$985.80$1,029.08$1,073.93
Upside / Downside67.09%74.42%82.02%

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