Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$85.75 - $151.86$113.72
Multi-Stage$207.74 - $228.69$218.01
Blended Fair Value$165.87
Current Price$111.00
Upside49.43%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.99%0.00%3.123.032.952.872.742.562.362.171.951.49
YoY Growth--2.86%2.70%2.88%4.52%7.05%8.45%8.79%11.24%31.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.78%4.16%3.56%4.83%4.25%3.43%3.59%2.88%2.88%1.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,110.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,982.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,128.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,622.001,013.75608.25
Cash Retained (M)4,128.004,128.004,128.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,622.00-1,013.75-608.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,506.003,114.253,519.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,256.751,256.751,256.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.992.482.80
LTM Dividend per Share3.173.173.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.992.482.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.165.655.97
WACC / Discount Rate5.44%5.44%5.44%
Growth Rate-0.55%0.45%1.45%
Fair Value$85.75$113.72$151.86
Upside / Downside-22.75%2.45%36.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,110.008,146.788,183.748,220.868,258.148,295.608,544.47
Payout Ratio49.10%57.28%65.46%73.64%81.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,982.004,666.475,357.076,053.836,756.817,466.047,903.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.44%5.44%5.44%
Growth Rate-0.55%0.45%1.45%
Year 1 PV (M)4,381.594,425.654,469.71
Year 2 PV (M)4,722.964,818.424,914.83
Year 3 PV (M)5,011.435,164.125,319.89
Year 4 PV (M)5,251.905,466.345,687.27
Year 5 PV (M)5,448.905,728.406,019.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)236,264.27248,383.67260,995.39
Equity Value (M)261,081.05273,986.60287,406.35
Shares Outstanding (M)1,256.751,256.751,256.75
Fair Value$207.74$218.01$228.69
Upside / Downside87.16%96.41%106.03%

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