Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

PT Gema Grahasarana Tbk (GEMA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$413.07 - $1,156.21$642.06
Multi-Stage$1,124.69 - $1,238.85$1,180.66
Blended Fair Value$911.36
Current Price$96.00
Upside849.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%13.06%5.000.000.000.005.005.005.007.003.201.42
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%-28.57%118.75%126.05%-3.41%
Dividend Yield--3.50%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.44%1.45%1.49%2.55%3.43%2.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)28,303.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,247.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)20,055.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,660.653,537.912,122.74
Cash Retained (M)20,055.7420,055.7420,055.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,660.65-3,537.91-2,122.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)14,395.0916,517.8417,933.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,600.001,600.001,600.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share9.0010.3211.21
LTM Dividend per Share5.155.155.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share9.0010.3211.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend14.1515.4816.36
WACC / Discount Rate4.33%4.33%4.33%
Growth Rate0.87%1.87%2.87%
Fair Value$413.07$642.06$1,156.21
Upside / Downside330.28%568.81%1,104.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)28,303.2428,832.9729,372.6229,922.3730,482.4031,052.9231,984.51
Payout Ratio29.14%41.31%53.48%65.66%77.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,247.5011,911.4315,709.6119,645.8023,723.8327,947.6329,585.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.33%4.33%4.33%
Growth Rate0.87%1.87%2.87%
Year 1 PV (M)11,305.2711,417.3411,529.42
Year 2 PV (M)14,151.4114,433.3814,718.13
Year 3 PV (M)16,796.5817,301.0917,815.61
Year 4 PV (M)19,250.9920,025.8020,823.77
Year 5 PV (M)21,524.3622,612.6423,744.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,716,478.561,803,264.641,893,526.11
Equity Value (M)1,799,507.171,889,054.901,982,157.55
Shares Outstanding (M)1,600.001,600.001,600.00
Fair Value$1,124.69$1,180.66$1,238.85
Upside / Downside1,071.55%1,129.85%1,190.47%

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