Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Fastenal Company (FAST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - DistributionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.01 - $87.67$44.94
Multi-Stage$20.09 - $21.90$20.98
Blended Fair Value$32.96
Current Price$49.04
Upside-32.79%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.37%11.66%0.780.880.620.560.700.430.380.320.300.28
YoY Growth---12.15%42.95%10.50%-19.88%61.13%12.83%19.72%6.49%5.96%10.29%
Dividend Yield--2.00%2.31%2.29%1.88%2.78%2.77%2.34%2.35%2.34%2.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,226.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)975.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)251.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)245.32153.3392.00
Cash Retained (M)251.50251.50251.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-245.32-153.33-92.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)6.1898.18159.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,149.951,149.951,149.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.090.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.850.850.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.090.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.850.930.99
WACC / Discount Rate8.50%8.50%8.50%
Growth Rate5.29%6.29%7.29%
Fair Value$28.01$44.94$87.67
Upside / Downside-42.88%-8.36%78.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,226.601,303.761,385.761,472.931,565.581,664.061,713.98
Payout Ratio79.50%81.60%83.70%85.80%87.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)975.101,063.821,159.851,263.751,376.131,497.651,585.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.50%8.50%8.50%
Growth Rate5.29%6.29%7.29%
Year 1 PV (M)971.28980.50989.73
Year 2 PV (M)966.83985.281,003.91
Year 3 PV (M)961.80989.461,017.66
Year 4 PV (M)956.22993.071,030.97
Year 5 PV (M)950.13996.111,043.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,295.2319,180.6920,100.10
Equity Value (M)23,101.4924,125.1225,186.23
Shares Outstanding (M)1,149.951,149.951,149.95
Fair Value$20.09$20.98$21.90
Upside / Downside-59.04%-57.22%-55.34%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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