DDM Analysis: CNQ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$106.44 - $613.90	$195.18
Multi-Stage	$65.72 - $71.72	$68.67
Blended Fair Value	$131.92
Current Price	$44.49
Upside	196.52%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	20.50%	16.58%	2.11	1.85	2.35	0.82	0.93	0.83	0.74	0.60	0.36	0.60
YoY Growth	-	-	13.83%	-21.01%	187.13%	-12.02%	11.88%	11.59%	24.76%	65.17%	-39.41%	30.99%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.76%	3.56%	6.27%	2.11%	4.79%	8.71%	3.99%	3.01%	1.65%	3.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	6,655.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	4,755.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,900.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,331.00	831.88	499.13
Cash Retained (M)	1,900.00	1,900.00	1,900.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,331.00	-831.88	-499.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)	569.00	1,068.13	1,400.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,099.52	2,099.52	2,099.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.27	0.51	0.67
LTM Dividend per Share	2.26	2.26	2.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.27	0.51	0.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.54	2.77	2.93
WACC / Discount Rate	8.01%	8.01%	8.01%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$106.44	$195.18	$613.90
Upside / Downside	139.24%	338.69%	1,279.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	6,655.00	7,087.58	7,548.27	8,038.90	8,561.43	9,117.93	9,391.46
Payout Ratio	71.45%	75.16%	78.87%	82.58%	86.29%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	4,755.00	5,327.02	5,953.32	6,638.53	7,387.66	8,206.13	8,687.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.01%	8.01%	8.01%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	4,885.51	4,931.82	4,978.12
Year 2 PV (M)	5,007.37	5,102.74	5,199.02
Year 3 PV (M)	5,120.91	5,267.91	5,417.70
Year 4 PV (M)	5,226.46	5,427.45	5,634.19
Year 5 PV (M)	5,324.32	5,581.49	5,848.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)	112,425.83	117,856.04	123,494.08
Equity Value (M)	137,990.39	144,167.45	150,571.61
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,099.52	2,099.52	2,099.52
Fair Value	$65.72	$68.67	$71.72
Upside / Downside	47.73%	54.34%	61.20%

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5536.TWO	Acter Group Corporation Limited	1.44%	$10.99	47.44%
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0W19.L	Datagroup Se	1.43%	$1.00	34.00%
0YG7.L	Beijer Alma AB (publ)	1.43%	$4.12	46.18%
2427.T	OUTSOURCING Inc.	1.43%	$24.98	56.59%
300409.SZ	Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co., Ltd.	1.43%	$0.32	58.17%
600362.SS	Jiangxi Copper Company Limited	1.43%	$0.79	33.95%
600409.SS	Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.,Ltd	1.43%	$0.09	81.03%
601858.SS	China Science Publishing & Media Ltd.	1.43%	$0.26	39.12%
603283.SS	Suzhou Secote Precision Electronic Co.,LTD	1.43%	$0.62	25.98%
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6479.T	MinebeaMitsumi Inc.	1.43%	$45.06	29.19%
7012.T	Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ltd.	1.43%	$148.51	32.29%
9630.SR	Ratio Speciality Company for Trading	1.43%	$0.10	14.11%
G	Genpact Limited	1.43%	$0.66	20.93%
GIL	Gildan Activewear Inc.	1.43%	$0.90	28.59%
MRU.TO	Metro Inc.	1.43%	$1.42	30.52%
SIMINN.IC	Síminn hf.	1.43%	$0.21	33.47%
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Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener