Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Corporación Moctezuma, S.A.B. de C.V. (CMOCTEZ.MX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$387.92 - $1,434.23$1,180.99
Multi-Stage$185.01 - $202.14$193.42
Blended Fair Value$687.20
Current Price$82.00
Upside738.05%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.64%9.29%5.024.034.084.104.114.865.475.164.132.06
YoY Growth--24.49%-1.22%-0.45%-0.26%-15.44%-11.18%6.00%25.00%100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.21%5.37%7.10%6.45%6.52%8.72%9.16%7.06%6.45%3.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,151.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,269.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,881.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,230.27768.92461.35
Cash Retained (M)1,881.531,881.531,881.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,230.27-768.92-461.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)651.261,112.611,420.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)852.97852.97852.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.761.301.66
LTM Dividend per Share5.015.015.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.761.301.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.776.316.67
WACC / Discount Rate7.07%7.07%7.07%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$387.92$1,180.99$1,434.23
Upside / Downside373.08%1,340.23%1,649.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,151.356,551.186,977.017,430.527,913.508,427.888,680.71
Payout Ratio69.41%73.53%77.65%81.77%85.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,269.824,817.105,417.496,075.576,796.327,585.098,029.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.07%7.07%7.07%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,456.824,499.064,541.30
Year 2 PV (M)4,637.414,725.744,814.90
Year 3 PV (M)4,811.764,949.895,090.63
Year 4 PV (M)4,980.005,171.525,368.50
Year 5 PV (M)5,142.285,390.655,648.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)133,782.36140,244.10146,953.14
Equity Value (M)157,810.62164,980.95172,417.02
Shares Outstanding (M)852.97852.97852.97
Fair Value$185.01$193.42$202.14
Upside / Downside125.63%135.88%146.51%

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