Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$244.99 - $607.35$366.74
Multi-Stage$263.14 - $287.82$275.25
Blended Fair Value$321.00
Current Price$184.75
Upside73.75%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.83%2.52%4.604.414.123.782.394.423.973.113.523.37
YoY Growth--4.28%7.11%8.91%58.16%-45.84%11.32%27.71%-11.80%4.41%-6.02%
Dividend Yield--2.49%3.50%4.11%4.19%2.40%6.36%4.82%4.26%4.25%4.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19,524.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15,572.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,952.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,904.802,440.501,464.30
Cash Retained (M)3,952.003,952.003,952.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,904.80-2,440.50-1,464.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)47.201,511.502,487.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,727.001,727.001,727.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.881.44
LTM Dividend per Share9.029.029.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.881.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.049.8910.46
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate3.28%4.28%5.28%
Fair Value$244.99$366.74$607.35
Upside / Downside32.61%98.51%228.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19,524.0020,359.4121,230.5622,138.9923,086.2924,074.1324,796.35
Payout Ratio79.76%81.81%83.85%85.90%87.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15,572.0016,655.3417,802.8819,018.1220,304.7721,666.7122,936.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate3.28%4.28%5.28%
Year 1 PV (M)15,403.2915,552.4315,701.57
Year 2 PV (M)15,226.8515,523.1515,822.30
Year 3 PV (M)15,043.4615,484.6815,934.44
Year 4 PV (M)14,853.8215,437.5216,038.25
Year 5 PV (M)14,658.6115,382.1516,133.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)379,264.17397,984.37417,436.58
Equity Value (M)454,450.20475,364.29497,067.13
Shares Outstanding (M)1,727.001,727.001,727.00
Fair Value$263.14$275.25$287.82
Upside / Downside42.43%48.99%55.79%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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