DDM Analysis: CAT

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$462.67 - $1,301.74	$720.22
Multi-Stage	$606.77 - $666.37	$636.00
Blended Fair Value	$678.11
Current Price	$477.15
Upside	42.12%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	4.41%	5.03%	5.55	5.38	5.12	4.89	4.71	4.47	4.09	3.84	3.78	3.69
YoY Growth	-	-	3.24%	5.04%	4.63%	3.97%	5.21%	9.28%	6.55%	1.78%	2.39%	8.46%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.68%	1.48%	2.24%	2.20%	2.03%	3.86%	2.92%	2.61%	4.07%	4.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	9,263.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,723.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	6,540.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,852.60	1,157.88	694.73
Cash Retained (M)	6,540.00	6,540.00	6,540.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,852.60	-1,157.88	-694.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)	4,687.40	5,382.13	5,845.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	476.53	476.53	476.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share	9.84	11.29	12.27
LTM Dividend per Share	5.71	5.71	5.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share	9.84	11.29	12.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend	15.55	17.01	17.98
WACC / Discount Rate	5.86%	5.86%	5.86%
Growth Rate	2.41%	3.41%	4.41%
Fair Value	$462.67	$720.22	$1,301.74
Upside / Downside	-3.03%	50.94%	172.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	9,263.00	9,579.28	9,906.36	10,244.60	10,594.40	10,956.14	11,284.82
Payout Ratio	29.40%	41.52%	53.64%	65.76%	77.88%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,723.00	3,977.05	5,313.56	6,736.71	8,250.84	9,860.52	10,438.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	5.86%	5.86%	5.86%
Growth Rate	2.41%	3.41%	4.41%
Year 1 PV (M)	3,720.68	3,757.01	3,793.34
Year 2 PV (M)	4,650.60	4,741.86	4,834.01
Year 3 PV (M)	5,516.11	5,679.27	5,845.62
Year 4 PV (M)	6,320.41	6,570.90	6,828.77
Year 5 PV (M)	7,066.56	7,418.37	7,784.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)	261,867.10	274,903.90	288,454.82
Equity Value (M)	289,141.47	303,071.32	317,540.61
Shares Outstanding (M)	476.53	476.53	476.53
Fair Value	$606.77	$636.00	$666.37
Upside / Downside	27.17%	33.29%	39.66%

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Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener