Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

PT Bank CIMB Niaga Tbk (BNGA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,402.85 - $3,640.97$2,985.35
Multi-Stage$5,016.96 - $5,515.05$5,261.14
Blended Fair Value$4,123.25
Current Price$1,695.00
Upside143.26%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS34.85%0.00%123.55114.2493.3143.7055.3827.7023.680.000.000.00
YoY Growth--8.15%22.43%113.52%-21.09%99.88%16.97%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.29%5.34%7.35%3.92%5.57%4.50%2.21%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,961,315.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,965,061.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,996,254.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,392,263.00870,164.38522,098.63
Cash Retained (M)2,996,254.002,996,254.002,996,254.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,392,263.00-870,164.38-522,098.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,603,991.002,126,089.632,474,155.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)25,139.5125,139.5125,139.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share63.8084.5798.42
LTM Dividend per Share157.72157.72157.72
(+) Excess Retained per Share63.8084.5798.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend221.53242.29256.14
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2,402.85$2,985.35$3,640.97
Upside / Downside41.76%76.13%114.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,961,315.006,891,701.856,822,784.836,754,556.986,687,011.416,620,141.306,818,745.54
Payout Ratio56.96%63.57%70.18%76.78%83.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,965,061.004,380,834.654,787,896.315,186,378.665,576,412.575,958,127.176,307,339.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)4,051,559.454,092,901.904,134,244.34
Year 2 PV (M)4,095,203.114,179,205.094,264,059.89
Year 3 PV (M)4,102,610.504,229,486.514,358,951.73
Year 4 PV (M)4,079,588.124,248,667.984,422,949.85
Year 5 PV (M)4,031,220.414,241,135.414,459,705.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)105,763,807.79111,271,174.65117,005,613.95
Equity Value (M)126,123,989.39132,262,571.54138,645,525.11
Shares Outstanding (M)25,139.5125,139.5125,139.51
Fair Value$5,016.96$5,261.14$5,515.05
Upside / Downside195.99%210.39%225.37%

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