Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayii Anonim Sirketi (AEFES.IS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$127.42 - $643.88$263.63
Multi-Stage$69.76 - $76.31$72.98
Blended Fair Value$168.30
Current Price$13.83
Upside1,116.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS46.16%0.00%0.920.690.910.680.190.140.120.060.050.08
YoY Growth--33.76%-24.53%34.50%265.85%34.25%17.67%97.42%20.59%-41.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.42%0.44%1.42%2.53%0.88%0.80%0.65%0.22%0.25%0.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10,543.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,677.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)7,865.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,108.711,317.94790.77
Cash Retained (M)7,865.677,865.677,865.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,108.71-1,317.94-790.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,756.976,547.737,074.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,256.583,256.583,256.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.772.012.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.820.820.82
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.772.012.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.592.832.99
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$127.42$263.63$643.88
Upside / Downside821.36%1,806.20%4,555.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10,543.5411,228.8711,958.7512,736.0613,563.9114,445.5614,878.93
Payout Ratio25.40%38.32%51.24%64.16%77.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,677.874,302.746,127.538,171.3710,455.0113,001.0113,763.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,959.643,997.184,034.71
Year 2 PV (M)5,189.295,288.135,387.91
Year 3 PV (M)6,368.376,551.186,737.46
Year 4 PV (M)7,498.427,786.788,083.39
Year 5 PV (M)8,580.918,995.379,425.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)195,585.45205,032.30214,840.71
Equity Value (M)227,182.08237,650.95248,509.87
Shares Outstanding (M)3,256.583,256.583,256.58
Fair Value$69.76$72.98$76.31
Upside / Downside404.42%427.66%451.77%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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