Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

AIB Group plc (A5G.IR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$91.08 - $216.92$203.29
Multi-Stage$32.11 - $35.13$33.59
Blended Fair Value$118.44
Current Price$6.99
Upside1,594.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.59%0.00%0.280.070.050.030.020.190.130.100.020.00
YoY Growth--319.28%36.07%87.69%41.30%-90.02%41.41%30.40%575.68%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.33%1.74%1.37%1.24%1.12%6.05%3.61%1.87%0.30%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,674.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,307.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,367.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)534.90334.31200.59
Cash Retained (M)1,367.501,367.501,367.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-534.90-334.31-200.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)832.601,033.191,166.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,452.032,452.032,452.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.420.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.530.530.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.420.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.870.951.01
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$91.08$203.29$216.92
Upside / Downside1,202.95%2,808.23%3,003.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,674.502,848.343,033.483,230.663,440.653,664.303,774.23
Payout Ratio48.87%57.10%65.32%73.55%81.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,307.001,626.271,981.512,376.072,813.553,297.873,491.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,512.521,526.861,541.19
Year 2 PV (M)1,714.021,746.671,779.62
Year 3 PV (M)1,911.561,966.432,022.35
Year 4 PV (M)2,105.202,186.162,269.43
Year 5 PV (M)2,294.982,405.832,520.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)69,201.1572,543.5976,013.95
Equity Value (M)78,739.4382,375.5386,147.47
Shares Outstanding (M)2,452.032,452.032,452.03
Fair Value$32.11$33.59$35.13
Upside / Downside359.40%380.61%402.62%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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