Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. (9633.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Non-AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.97 - $22.86$19.35
Multi-Stage$26.54 - $29.07$27.78
Blended Fair Value$23.56
Current Price$36.58
Upside-35.59%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-2.55%0.00%0.750.680.450.170.710.850.040.030.000.00
YoY Growth--10.31%51.14%164.61%-76.04%-16.86%1,976.50%25.87%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.35%1.70%1.16%0.41%1.54%2.89%0.14%0.12%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)26,049.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16,081.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)9,968.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,209.893,256.181,953.71
Cash Retained (M)9,968.309,968.309,968.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,209.89-3,256.18-1,953.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,758.416,712.128,014.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11,246.4711,246.4711,246.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.420.600.71
LTM Dividend per Share1.431.431.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.420.600.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.852.032.14
WACC / Discount Rate9.37%9.37%9.37%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$15.97$19.35$22.86
Upside / Downside-56.34%-47.11%-37.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)26,049.4625,788.9725,531.0825,275.7725,023.0124,772.7825,515.96
Payout Ratio61.73%67.39%73.04%78.69%84.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16,081.1617,378.3018,647.8819,890.3321,106.0722,295.5023,602.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.37%9.37%9.37%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)15,728.8315,889.3216,049.82
Year 2 PV (M)15,275.9315,589.2815,905.80
Year 3 PV (M)14,747.2015,203.2615,668.64
Year 4 PV (M)14,163.2814,750.2815,355.35
Year 5 PV (M)13,541.3814,246.5114,980.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)225,008.87236,725.61248,925.43
Equity Value (M)298,465.49312,404.27326,885.76
Shares Outstanding (M)11,246.4711,246.4711,246.47
Fair Value$26.54$27.78$29.07
Upside / Downside-27.45%-24.06%-20.54%

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