Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Japan Transcity Corporation (9310.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,384.65 - $19,119.82$6,411.44
Multi-Stage$1,985.28 - $2,169.63$2,075.77
Blended Fair Value$4,243.61
Current Price$1,093.00
Upside288.25%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS18.33%9.91%23.6612.2411.2510.2210.2010.2010.2010.1910.6910.23
YoY Growth--93.37%8.77%10.12%0.16%0.00%0.00%0.16%-4.76%4.51%11.25%
Dividend Yield--2.17%1.18%1.81%2.08%1.90%2.02%2.12%1.89%2.35%3.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,041.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,449.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,592.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,208.20755.13453.08
Cash Retained (M)3,592.003,592.003,592.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,208.20-755.13-453.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,383.802,836.883,138.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)62.8462.8462.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share37.9445.1549.95
LTM Dividend per Share38.9738.9738.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share37.9445.1549.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend76.9184.1288.93
WACC / Discount Rate7.90%7.90%7.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3,384.65$6,411.44$19,119.82
Upside / Downside209.67%486.59%1,649.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,041.006,433.676,851.857,297.227,771.548,276.698,524.99
Payout Ratio40.54%50.43%60.32%70.22%80.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,449.003,244.614,133.305,123.816,225.627,449.027,885.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.90%7.90%7.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,978.893,007.123,035.36
Year 2 PV (M)3,484.023,550.383,617.37
Year 3 PV (M)3,965.244,079.064,195.05
Year 4 PV (M)4,423.354,593.464,768.43
Year 5 PV (M)4,859.145,093.845,337.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)105,035.21110,108.45115,375.85
Equity Value (M)124,745.84130,432.31136,329.58
Shares Outstanding (M)62.8462.8462.84
Fair Value$1,985.28$2,075.77$2,169.63
Upside / Downside81.64%89.92%98.50%

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