Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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The Shibusawa Warehouse Co., Ltd. (9304.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,354.74 - $6,638.28$3,667.33
Multi-Stage$1,828.15 - $1,999.01$1,912.02
Blended Fair Value$2,789.67
Current Price$1,158.00
Upside140.90%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS18.55%12.37%29.7323.8121.1614.8213.5012.7012.0313.9010.5910.59
YoY Growth--24.87%12.51%42.77%9.81%6.31%5.50%-13.41%31.25%0.00%14.29%
Dividend Yield--2.95%2.86%3.03%2.79%2.55%2.45%2.82%3.22%2.33%3.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,548.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,034.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,514.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,109.60693.50416.10
Cash Retained (M)3,514.003,514.003,514.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,109.60-693.50-416.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,404.402,820.503,097.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)57.4257.4257.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share41.8749.1253.95
LTM Dividend per Share35.4235.4235.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share41.8749.1253.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend77.3084.5489.37
WACC / Discount Rate8.12%8.12%8.12%
Growth Rate4.68%5.68%6.68%
Fair Value$2,354.74$3,667.33$6,638.28
Upside / Downside103.35%216.69%473.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,548.005,863.346,196.606,548.816,921.037,314.417,533.85
Payout Ratio36.66%47.33%58.00%68.66%79.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,034.002,775.093,593.854,496.725,490.626,582.976,968.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.12%8.12%8.12%
Growth Rate4.68%5.68%6.68%
Year 1 PV (M)2,542.382,566.672,590.96
Year 2 PV (M)3,016.403,074.303,132.76
Year 3 PV (M)3,457.713,557.753,659.70
Year 4 PV (M)3,867.934,017.864,172.10
Year 5 PV (M)4,248.584,455.424,670.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)87,840.6392,117.0896,558.48
Equity Value (M)104,973.64109,789.08114,784.23
Shares Outstanding (M)57.4257.4257.42
Fair Value$1,828.15$1,912.02$1,999.01
Upside / Downside57.87%65.11%72.63%

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