Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Toyoda Gosei Co., Ltd. (7282.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,692.25 - $10,803.82$7,755.81
Multi-Stage$5,202.30 - $5,686.31$5,439.88
Blended Fair Value$6,597.84
Current Price$3,682.00
Upside79.19%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS11.85%6.11%106.8869.2655.9971.3355.9661.0759.0056.9953.9456.99
YoY Growth--54.31%23.71%-21.51%27.46%-8.36%3.51%3.52%5.66%-5.35%-3.46%
Dividend Yield--3.76%2.42%2.06%3.33%2.05%2.72%2.74%2.03%2.01%3.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)45,852.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13,346.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)32,506.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9,170.405,731.503,438.90
Cash Retained (M)32,506.0032,506.0032,506.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-9,170.40-5,731.50-3,438.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)23,335.6026,774.5029,067.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)127.17127.17127.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share183.49210.53228.56
LTM Dividend per Share104.94104.94104.94
(+) Excess Retained per Share183.49210.53228.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend288.44315.48333.50
WACC / Discount Rate9.39%9.39%9.39%
Growth Rate4.11%5.11%6.11%
Fair Value$5,692.25$7,755.81$10,803.82
Upside / Downside54.60%110.64%193.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)45,852.0048,197.2350,662.4253,253.6955,977.5158,840.6460,605.86
Payout Ratio29.11%41.29%53.46%65.64%77.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13,346.0019,898.4027,086.1634,957.1543,562.4552,956.5756,060.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.39%9.39%9.39%
Growth Rate4.11%5.11%6.11%
Year 1 PV (M)18,017.2018,190.2518,363.30
Year 2 PV (M)22,206.8022,635.4323,068.16
Year 3 PV (M)25,950.3826,705.3227,474.77
Year 4 PV (M)29,281.2230,422.4931,596.80
Year 5 PV (M)32,230.4233,808.2735,447.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)533,913.99560,051.93587,203.67
Equity Value (M)661,600.00691,813.69723,154.02
Shares Outstanding (M)127.17127.17127.17
Fair Value$5,202.30$5,439.88$5,686.31
Upside / Downside41.29%47.74%54.44%

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