Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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Koito Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (7276.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,463.16 - $2,197.32$1,810.67
Multi-Stage$1,916.80 - $2,098.49$2,005.94
Blended Fair Value$1,908.31
Current Price$1,724.50
Upside10.66%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.21%14.15%58.2544.2729.9629.9522.1957.6555.4138.7922.1623.28
YoY Growth--31.60%47.77%0.01%35.01%-61.51%4.03%42.87%75.02%-4.79%50.02%
Dividend Yield--3.38%2.00%1.16%1.39%0.64%2.66%1.88%1.06%0.77%1.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)49,064.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16,257.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)32,807.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9,812.806,133.003,679.80
Cash Retained (M)32,807.0032,807.0032,807.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-9,812.80-6,133.00-3,679.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)22,994.2026,674.0029,127.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)289.92289.92289.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share79.3192.00100.47
LTM Dividend per Share56.0756.0756.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share79.3192.00100.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend135.39148.08156.54
WACC / Discount Rate9.95%9.95%9.95%
Growth Rate0.64%1.64%2.64%
Fair Value$1,463.16$1,810.67$2,197.32
Upside / Downside-15.15%5.00%27.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)49,064.0049,868.3250,685.8251,516.7252,361.2553,219.6254,816.21
Payout Ratio33.13%44.51%55.88%67.25%78.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16,257.0022,195.1028,323.5234,646.9141,170.0047,897.6650,704.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.95%9.95%9.95%
Growth Rate0.64%1.64%2.64%
Year 1 PV (M)19,987.6720,186.2820,384.88
Year 2 PV (M)22,969.8123,428.5523,891.83
Year 3 PV (M)25,303.4426,065.2426,842.18
Year 4 PV (M)27,077.0328,169.3829,294.45
Year 5 PV (M)28,368.7029,806.4131,301.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)432,017.34453,911.79476,685.06
Equity Value (M)555,723.98581,567.65608,400.23
Shares Outstanding (M)289.92289.92289.92
Fair Value$1,916.80$2,005.94$2,098.49
Upside / Downside11.15%16.32%21.69%

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