Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Arabian Internet and Communications Services Co. Ltd. (7202.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$88.96 - $127.32$107.76
Multi-Stage$150.75 - $164.93$157.70
Blended Fair Value$132.73
Current Price$257.40
Upside-48.43%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-2.25%0.00%5.954.963.963.330.006.672.500.000.000.00
YoY Growth--20.02%25.19%18.80%0.00%-100.00%166.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.94%1.30%1.59%1.58%0.00%3.40%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,551.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,190.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)360.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)310.24193.90116.34
Cash Retained (M)360.77360.77360.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-310.24-193.90-116.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)50.54166.88244.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)120.00120.00120.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.421.392.04
LTM Dividend per Share9.929.929.92
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.421.392.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.3411.3111.96
WACC / Discount Rate9.39%9.39%9.39%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$88.96$107.76$127.32
Upside / Downside-65.44%-58.14%-50.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,551.181,535.671,520.311,505.111,490.061,475.161,519.41
Payout Ratio76.74%79.39%82.05%84.70%87.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,190.411,219.221,247.341,274.781,301.541,327.641,405.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.39%9.39%9.39%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,103.291,114.551,125.81
Year 2 PV (M)1,021.411,042.361,063.52
Year 3 PV (M)944.62973.831,003.64
Year 4 PV (M)872.74908.91946.20
Year 5 PV (M)805.59847.54891.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,342.5914,037.3714,760.80
Equity Value (M)18,090.2418,924.5619,791.18
Shares Outstanding (M)120.00120.00120.00
Fair Value$150.75$157.70$164.93
Upside / Downside-41.43%-38.73%-35.93%

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