Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Daiwa Industries Ltd. (6459.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,115.83 - $1,762.46$1,411.38
Multi-Stage$1,319.27 - $1,441.41$1,379.21
Blended Fair Value$1,395.29
Current Price$1,660.00
Upside-15.95%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.27%11.12%29.9629.8830.9631.0120.8341.4115.5710.4310.3710.38
YoY Growth--0.26%-3.46%-0.18%48.91%-49.71%165.95%49.34%0.54%-0.11%-0.58%
Dividend Yield--1.76%1.86%2.24%2.85%1.89%4.39%1.31%0.82%0.90%1.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,316.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,463.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,853.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,063.39664.62398.77
Cash Retained (M)2,853.952,853.952,853.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,063.39-664.62-398.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,790.552,189.332,455.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)49.3649.3649.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share36.2744.3549.74
LTM Dividend per Share49.9049.9049.90
(+) Excess Retained per Share36.2744.3549.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend86.1794.2599.63
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate2.11%3.11%4.11%
Fair Value$1,115.83$1,411.38$1,762.46
Upside / Downside-32.78%-14.98%6.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,316.965,482.555,653.305,829.376,010.926,198.126,384.07
Payout Ratio46.32%55.06%63.79%72.53%81.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,463.013,018.633,606.484,228.014,884.765,578.315,905.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate2.11%3.11%4.11%
Year 1 PV (M)2,717.602,744.212,770.83
Year 2 PV (M)2,923.032,980.563,038.65
Year 3 PV (M)3,085.043,176.573,269.88
Year 4 PV (M)3,208.803,336.353,467.67
Year 5 PV (M)3,298.963,463.693,634.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)49,890.2952,381.4654,971.18
Equity Value (M)65,123.7268,082.8571,153.15
Shares Outstanding (M)49.3649.3649.36
Fair Value$1,319.27$1,379.21$1,441.41
Upside / Downside-20.53%-16.92%-13.17%

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