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Definitive Analysis

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BELLSYSTEM24 Holdings, Inc. (6183.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,304.76 - $2,176.47$1,688.72
Multi-Stage$2,079.89 - $2,281.20$2,178.63
Blended Fair Value$1,933.68
Current Price$1,247.00
Upside55.07%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS9.01%0.00%59.7859.7759.8044.8141.8338.8435.8735.8235.400.00
YoY Growth--0.02%-0.05%33.43%7.12%7.71%8.27%0.15%1.19%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.79%3.71%4.33%3.13%2.56%2.86%2.29%1.92%3.35%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,172.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,414.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,758.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,634.401,021.50612.90
Cash Retained (M)3,758.003,758.003,758.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,634.40-1,021.50-612.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,123.602,736.503,145.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)73.8273.8273.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share28.7737.0742.61
LTM Dividend per Share59.8059.8059.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share28.7737.0742.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend88.5696.87102.40
WACC / Discount Rate7.37%7.37%7.37%
Growth Rate0.54%1.54%2.54%
Fair Value$1,304.76$1,688.72$2,176.47
Upside / Downside4.63%35.42%74.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,172.008,298.088,426.108,556.108,688.108,822.149,086.81
Payout Ratio54.01%61.21%68.41%75.61%82.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,414.005,079.335,764.156,468.887,193.997,939.938,405.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.37%7.37%7.37%
Growth Rate0.54%1.54%2.54%
Year 1 PV (M)4,684.214,730.794,777.38
Year 2 PV (M)4,902.235,000.235,099.20
Year 3 PV (M)5,073.605,226.505,382.44
Year 4 PV (M)5,203.395,413.515,629.93
Year 5 PV (M)5,296.185,564.855,844.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)128,372.16134,884.37141,658.23
Equity Value (M)153,531.76160,820.25168,391.50
Shares Outstanding (M)73.8273.8273.82
Fair Value$2,079.89$2,178.63$2,281.20
Upside / Downside66.79%74.71%82.93%

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