Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co., Ltd. (603369.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$46.05 - $102.98$66.60
Multi-Stage$36.30 - $39.47$37.86
Blended Fair Value$52.23
Current Price$39.30
Upside32.90%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.67%19.67%1.000.740.590.450.420.330.250.190.170.16
YoY Growth--35.14%25.48%30.04%8.63%25.73%31.39%31.47%16.53%5.13%-5.46%
Dividend Yield--1.89%1.24%0.91%1.08%0.85%1.18%0.88%1.22%1.25%2.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,875.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,738.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)137.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)575.04359.40215.64
Cash Retained (M)137.01137.01137.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-575.04-359.40-215.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)-438.03-222.39-78.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,246.801,246.801,246.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.35-0.18-0.06
LTM Dividend per Share2.202.202.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.35-0.18-0.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.842.022.13
WACC / Discount Rate9.73%9.73%9.73%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$46.05$66.60$102.98
Upside / Downside17.17%69.46%162.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,875.193,062.083,261.113,473.083,698.833,939.264,057.44
Payout Ratio95.23%94.19%93.14%92.09%91.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,738.182,884.103,037.433,198.503,367.683,545.333,753.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.73%9.73%9.73%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,603.762,628.442,653.12
Year 2 PV (M)2,475.642,522.792,570.39
Year 3 PV (M)2,353.522,421.082,489.92
Year 4 PV (M)2,237.142,323.172,411.66
Year 5 PV (M)2,126.232,228.932,335.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)33,461.4535,077.6536,755.70
Equity Value (M)45,257.7347,202.0649,216.36
Shares Outstanding (M)1,246.801,246.801,246.80
Fair Value$36.30$37.86$39.47
Upside / Downside-7.64%-3.67%0.44%

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