Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co., Ltd. (603305.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.99 - $82.19$36.59
Multi-Stage$9.68 - $10.55$10.11
Blended Fair Value$23.35
Current Price$18.15
Upside28.64%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.08%122.94%0.270.130.070.160.000.110.040.020.010.05
YoY Growth--115.98%74.59%-54.02%8,082.70%-98.24%151.66%89.45%120.32%-78.90%54,707.94%
Dividend Yield--1.99%0.88%0.26%0.99%0.01%0.58%0.26%0.15%0.13%0.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)393.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)385.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)78.6349.1429.48
Cash Retained (M)7.237.237.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-78.63-49.14-29.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)-71.39-41.91-22.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)951.21951.21951.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.08-0.04-0.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.410.410.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.08-0.04-0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.360.38
WACC / Discount Rate7.55%7.55%7.55%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$16.99$36.59$82.19
Upside / Downside-6.37%101.60%352.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)393.13418.68445.90474.88505.75538.62554.78
Payout Ratio98.16%96.53%94.90%93.26%91.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)385.89404.14423.14442.89463.43484.76513.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.55%7.55%7.55%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)372.24375.76379.29
Year 2 PV (M)358.96365.80372.70
Year 3 PV (M)346.05355.99366.11
Year 4 PV (M)333.51346.34359.53
Year 5 PV (M)321.32336.84352.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,471.647,832.528,207.22
Equity Value (M)9,203.729,613.2410,037.80
Shares Outstanding (M)951.21951.21951.21
Fair Value$9.68$10.11$10.55
Upside / Downside-46.69%-44.32%-41.86%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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