Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co., Ltd. (603198.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$50.07 - $107.74$71.45
Multi-Stage$38.28 - $41.71$39.96
Blended Fair Value$55.71
Current Price$41.15
Upside35.37%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.18%21.27%1.301.100.910.700.700.700.700.600.500.40
YoY Growth--18.11%21.56%28.68%0.51%0.00%0.00%16.67%20.00%25.00%111.64%
Dividend Yield--2.41%1.61%1.36%1.30%1.99%4.34%3.75%3.95%2.35%1.93%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,094.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,203.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)890.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)418.86261.79157.07
Cash Retained (M)890.97890.97890.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-418.86-261.79-157.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)472.12629.19733.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)798.64798.64798.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.590.790.92
LTM Dividend per Share1.511.511.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.590.790.92
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.102.292.43
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$50.07$71.45$107.74
Upside / Downside21.68%73.62%161.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,094.282,230.412,375.392,529.792,694.222,869.352,955.43
Payout Ratio57.46%63.97%70.47%76.98%83.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,203.311,426.691,674.031,947.502,249.442,582.412,733.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,285.741,297.931,310.12
Year 2 PV (M)1,359.611,385.501,411.64
Year 3 PV (M)1,425.451,466.371,508.06
Year 4 PV (M)1,483.801,540.861,599.55
Year 5 PV (M)1,535.151,609.291,686.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,483.3424,617.5925,795.26
Equity Value (M)30,573.0831,917.5533,310.92
Shares Outstanding (M)798.64798.64798.64
Fair Value$38.28$39.96$41.71
Upside / Downside-6.97%-2.88%1.36%

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