Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Xilinmen Furniture Co.,Ltd (603008.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$156.40 - $184.26$172.68
Multi-Stage$58.67 - $64.27$61.42
Blended Fair Value$117.05
Current Price$17.62
Upside564.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.07%17.20%0.690.250.500.440.240.230.300.160.240.12
YoY Growth--181.13%-51.37%14.88%86.11%4.69%-25.61%86.53%-33.05%105.87%-16.45%
Dividend Yield--4.02%1.43%1.61%1.52%0.89%1.87%2.59%0.92%1.20%0.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)346.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)320.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)26.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)69.3143.3225.99
Cash Retained (M)26.1426.1426.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-69.31-43.32-25.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)-43.16-17.170.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)374.02374.02374.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.12-0.050.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.860.860.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.12-0.050.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.740.810.86
WACC / Discount Rate4.69%4.69%4.69%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$156.40$172.68$184.26
Upside / Downside787.62%880.04%945.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)346.54369.07393.06418.61445.82474.79489.04
Payout Ratio92.46%91.96%91.47%90.98%90.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)320.40339.41359.54380.86403.42427.31452.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.69%4.69%4.69%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)321.17324.21327.26
Year 2 PV (M)321.93328.06334.25
Year 3 PV (M)322.69331.95341.39
Year 4 PV (M)323.43335.87348.67
Year 5 PV (M)324.17339.83356.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,330.6021,312.5722,332.13
Equity Value (M)21,943.9922,972.5024,039.78
Shares Outstanding (M)374.02374.02374.02
Fair Value$58.67$61.42$64.27
Upside / Downside232.98%248.58%264.78%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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