Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.,Ltd. (601966.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$31.94 - $163.32$65.42
Multi-Stage$17.86 - $19.52$18.68
Blended Fair Value$42.05
Current Price$15.34
Upside174.12%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS29.28%26.36%0.870.060.160.460.350.240.210.140.200.16
YoY Growth--1,387.32%-62.77%-65.72%31.31%44.86%12.41%57.83%-32.58%25.63%91.23%
Dividend Yield--4.89%0.28%0.80%2.07%0.74%1.22%1.19%0.78%0.81%0.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,207.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)512.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)695.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)241.57150.9890.59
Cash Retained (M)695.35695.35695.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-241.57-150.98-90.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)453.78544.37604.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,470.841,470.841,470.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.370.41
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.370.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.660.720.76
WACC / Discount Rate7.67%7.67%7.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$31.94$65.42$163.32
Upside / Downside108.24%326.49%964.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,207.871,286.381,370.001,459.051,553.891,654.891,704.53
Payout Ratio42.43%51.95%61.46%70.97%80.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)512.52668.22841.991,035.531,250.671,489.401,576.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.67%7.67%7.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)614.79620.62626.44
Year 2 PV (M)712.73726.30740.01
Year 3 PV (M)806.47829.62853.21
Year 4 PV (M)896.15930.61966.06
Year 5 PV (M)981.881,029.301,078.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,258.9723,334.0924,450.35
Equity Value (M)26,270.9827,470.5428,714.61
Shares Outstanding (M)1,470.841,470.841,470.84
Fair Value$17.86$18.68$19.52
Upside / Downside16.44%21.75%27.27%

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