Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

China Zheshang Bank Co., Ltd (601916.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.23 - $100.62$31.88
Multi-Stage$10.49 - $11.45$10.96
Blended Fair Value$21.42
Current Price$2.98
Upside618.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS43.94%70.27%0.200.210.070.160.210.030.150.110.090.00
YoY Growth---3.77%184.15%-53.63%-25.38%553.11%-78.10%32.38%29.75%29,491.20%-70.23%
Dividend Yield--6.75%6.92%2.70%5.01%5.49%0.84%3.14%2.37%1.83%0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13,949.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,830.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,119.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,789.801,743.631,046.18
Cash Retained (M)5,119.005,119.005,119.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,789.80-1,743.63-1,046.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,329.203,375.384,072.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)27,570.2527,570.2527,570.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.120.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.120.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.400.440.47
WACC / Discount Rate7.98%7.98%7.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$17.23$31.88$100.62
Upside / Downside478.09%969.92%3,276.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13,949.0014,855.6915,821.3016,849.6917,944.9219,111.3419,684.68
Payout Ratio63.30%68.64%73.98%79.32%84.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,830.0010,197.1811,704.7913,365.3115,192.2417,200.2018,208.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.98%7.98%7.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)9,355.029,443.709,532.37
Year 2 PV (M)9,851.2910,038.9310,228.34
Year 3 PV (M)10,319.8410,616.0810,917.94
Year 4 PV (M)10,761.6811,175.5511,601.24
Year 5 PV (M)11,177.8111,717.7012,278.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)237,669.61249,149.14261,068.02
Equity Value (M)289,135.24302,141.09315,626.15
Shares Outstanding (M)27,570.2527,570.2527,570.25
Fair Value$10.49$10.96$11.45
Upside / Downside251.92%267.75%284.16%

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