Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

China South Publishing & Media Group Co., Ltd (601098.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: PublishingSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.07 - $18.69$14.40
Multi-Stage$11.77 - $12.84$12.29
Blended Fair Value$13.35
Current Price$12.28
Upside8.69%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.28%12.51%0.650.600.660.630.620.610.600.500.290.27
YoY Growth--8.33%-8.05%3.54%1.61%1.67%1.67%20.00%72.41%7.41%35.00%
Dividend Yield--4.66%4.70%5.63%6.68%5.94%5.77%4.62%3.94%1.62%1.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,583.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)987.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)595.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)316.75197.97118.78
Cash Retained (M)595.96595.96595.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-316.75-197.97-118.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)279.21397.99477.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,786.811,786.811,786.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.220.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.550.550.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.220.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.710.780.82
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate3.35%4.35%5.35%
Fair Value$11.07$14.40$18.69
Upside / Downside-9.86%17.25%52.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,583.761,652.661,724.551,799.581,877.861,959.562,018.34
Payout Ratio62.37%67.90%73.42%78.95%84.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)987.801,122.101,266.211,420.731,586.311,763.601,866.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate3.35%4.35%5.35%
Year 1 PV (M)1,010.581,020.361,030.14
Year 2 PV (M)1,027.031,047.011,067.17
Year 3 PV (M)1,037.851,068.271,099.27
Year 4 PV (M)1,043.631,084.621,126.79
Year 5 PV (M)1,044.961,096.511,150.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,868.9316,651.6517,464.96
Equity Value (M)21,032.9821,968.4022,938.40
Shares Outstanding (M)1,786.811,786.811,786.81
Fair Value$11.77$12.29$12.84
Upside / Downside-4.14%0.12%4.54%

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