Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nanjing Gaoke Company Limited (600064.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.45 - $15.39$12.82
Multi-Stage$18.35 - $20.20$19.26
Blended Fair Value$16.04
Current Price$8.06
Upside99.02%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.40%4.56%0.440.470.540.360.370.220.150.300.250.17
YoY Growth---6.68%-11.58%49.85%-2.19%69.21%46.10%-50.68%20.73%46.67%-40.21%
Dividend Yield--6.05%7.50%8.07%4.89%5.08%3.66%1.75%5.69%3.99%2.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,325.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)362.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,962.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)465.04290.65174.39
Cash Retained (M)1,962.501,962.501,962.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-465.04-290.65-174.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,497.461,671.851,788.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,730.351,730.351,730.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.870.971.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.870.971.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.081.181.24
WACC / Discount Rate8.08%8.08%8.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$10.45$12.82$15.39
Upside / Downside29.70%59.09%90.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,325.222,301.972,278.952,256.162,233.602,211.262,277.60
Payout Ratio15.60%30.48%45.36%60.24%75.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)362.72701.631,033.721,359.101,677.871,990.132,106.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.08%8.08%8.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)642.63649.19655.74
Year 2 PV (M)867.18884.97902.94
Year 3 PV (M)1,044.271,076.571,109.52
Year 4 PV (M)1,180.791,229.731,280.17
Year 5 PV (M)1,282.771,349.571,419.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)26,741.9328,134.4529,584.38
Equity Value (M)31,759.5833,324.4734,951.87
Shares Outstanding (M)1,730.351,730.351,730.35
Fair Value$18.35$19.26$20.20
Upside / Downside127.72%138.94%150.61%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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