Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Gas Malaysia Berhad (5209.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.42 - $11.06$7.58
Multi-Stage$9.50 - $10.43$9.96
Blended Fair Value$8.77
Current Price$4.31
Upside103.52%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS11.09%0.00%0.230.230.190.160.140.140.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--3.41%20.30%20.32%15.13%-1.81%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.36%6.49%5.94%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)407.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)336.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)70.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)81.4150.8830.53
Cash Retained (M)70.7770.7770.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-81.41-50.88-30.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)-10.6419.8940.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,284.001,284.001,284.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.280.29
WACC / Discount Rate5.89%5.89%5.89%
Growth Rate1.16%2.16%3.16%
Fair Value$5.42$7.58$11.06
Upside / Downside25.68%75.98%156.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)407.05415.84424.81433.98443.35452.92466.51
Payout Ratio82.61%84.09%85.57%87.05%88.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)336.28349.68363.50377.76392.46407.63431.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.89%5.89%5.89%
Growth Rate1.16%2.16%3.16%
Year 1 PV (M)326.98330.22333.45
Year 2 PV (M)317.85324.16330.54
Year 3 PV (M)308.87318.12327.56
Year 4 PV (M)300.07312.11324.51
Year 5 PV (M)291.43306.12321.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,658.4911,195.8311,754.63
Equity Value (M)12,203.6912,786.5613,392.09
Shares Outstanding (M)1,284.001,284.001,284.00
Fair Value$9.50$9.96$10.43
Upside / Downside120.52%131.05%141.99%

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